Yakov and Partners - In the media

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To illustrate the domineering role of China, Alexey Kobzev, a Yakov and Partners’ Engagement Manager, points to rare-earth metals. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounts for 60% of their total global production and 91% of processing volumes. He believes China managed to take leadership thanks to strong government aid programs

China is the unchallenged leader in gallium, germanium, and antimony production, putting other countries in a highly dependent position. “They mine 98%, 94%, and 48% of the world’s gallium, germanium, and antimony, respectively. Meanwhile, the shares of Chinese supplies in the global consumption of these materials are 21%, 26%, and 51%, respectively,” says Sofia Mangileva, an expert at Yakov and Partners Research & Insights Center

“The main drivers behind the increase in domestic steel consumption by 2030 will be rail car manufacturing, construction of railway infrastructure, and pipe industry, while other areas will either stagnate or reduce their steel consumption volume,” says Egor Bespiatov. “For instance, in real estate, demand is expected to fall in 2025–2027 as compared to 2023, with recovery to current levels likely by 2030.”

Despite the general trend of increasing energy efficiency, coal still accounts for more than a quarter of the global energy mix. The decline in consumption and production in Europe and the United States is evident, but it is not yet time to declare coal a thing of the past for these regions. The domestic coal industry is capable of sustaining the required export volumes, but logistics issues are coming to the fore, say Yakov and Partners’ director Egor Bespyatov and expert Sofia Mangileva

The proposal to outlaw private fire brigades at strategic facilities put forward by the Ministry of Emergency Situations will send business costs up. Yakov and Partners’ expert Sophia Mangileva warns that a monopoly will result in higher prices for services, which will have a negative impact on the metals industry amidst ongoing cost optimization

64% of respondents from the industry stated that the impact of using digital technologies had reached 2% of EBITDA. Digitalization brings more than 3% EBITDA to every third mining and metallurgy company in the Russian Federation. Yakov and Partners experts estimate that increasing digitalization levels could bring an additional RUB 1–3 bn in EBITDA for companies with a turnover of RUB 100 bn, and an additional RUB 6–10 bn for companies with a turnover of RUB 500 bn

The path to long-term stability and steady development of the domestic coal market is fraught with challenges, but the risks associated with its potential decline may be mitigated through timely and comprehensive measures. For more details, see the op-ed by Sophia Mangileva of Yakov and Partners

China has a monopoly on rare earth metal production and refining, having concentrated the entire value chain within the country. The US ranks second in REM mining, although its share of refining is under 5%. Although the two countries account for about 80% of global production, their combined reserves amount to only 52%, comments Victoria Trifonova, an expert at the Research & Insights Center at Yakov and Partners

Demand for rare earth metals in Russia may increase in the passenger aircraft and electric vehicle manufacturing segments, with more than 80% of domestic consumption currently accounted for by optical industry products and catalysts, says Victoria Trifonova, an expert at the Research & Insights Center at Yakov and Partners