Yakov and Partners - In the media

Imports of nitrogen fertilizers into India decreased by 35% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, to 1.1 million tons, due to lower domestic gas prices and an increase in liquefied natural gas imports. The competitiveness of Russian fertilizers on the Indian market will continue, provided that Russia can maintain not only low production costs but also efficient delivery logistics, according to Egor Bespyatov

One of the largest Russian fertilizer producers, Phosagro, increased fertilizer supplies to Latin American countries by 1.5 times to 3.2 million tons in 2023. "In 2023, exports of fertilizers to Brazil increased by 17% to 9.4 mn tonnes. It now accounts for about 80% of fertilizer imports in the region," says Andrey Strogonov, an expert at the Yakov and Partners Research & Insights Center

The Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed to extend the quotas for the export of nitrogen and complex fertilizers until June 2025. Valdis Plyavinsh, a senior analyst at Yakov and Partners, notes that the export quotas have increased by 2.3 mn tonnes vs. 2023 on the back of increased production. He explains that setting quotas today is akin to taking out an insurance policy in case of a crisis

Yakov and Partners expert Andrey Strogonov estimates that if fertilizer sales remain at current levels, an increase in the MET may reduce producers' EBITDA margins by about 5-6 pp. At the same time, the removal of "exchange rate" export duties, which are currently set at 10% for fertilizer producers above a certain threshold, should help to offset this decrease