Yakov and Partners - In the media

"The hard limit for any agricultural export and even growth is actually the amount of arable lands, and for Russia with its amounts of arable land exceeding 120 million hectares, it definitely has no limitations for any export growth. So may be realistically we do expect that the volumes may grow by estimate 200,000 may be 300,000 tons per year and corresponding growth of value, maybe growth to over 1 billion dollars or more", says Alexey Kletsko

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A partial recovery in Chinese exports will balance out the global market, explains Valdis Plyavinsh, a Senior Analyst at the Research & Insights Center at Yakov and Partners. Once urea exports to India meet the planned targets of at least 1.5 million tonnes in the second half of 2025, prices will come under significant pressure

Yakov and Partners’ Director Alexey Kletsko believes that instead of supporting farmers, export duties warp the industry's economics. The Central Bank's high key rate adds to the burden, making industry players pay an extra RUB 500-600 billion towards loan costs compared to the period before 2022. This undermines farmers' sustainability and limits their opportunities for development

According to Valdis Plyavinsh, a Senior Analyst at the Research & Insights Center at Yakov and Partners, the surge in Russian fertilizer exports to Turkey was primarily driven by urea supplies, which increased 216,000 tonnes, as well as NP fertilizers, which added another 53,000 tonnes. The expert notes that the key factors behind the rise in exports were increased fertilizer production in Russia and restricted exports to Europe

Valdis Plyavinsh explains that while taxation in the industry tightened significantly in 2024, higher sales prices could offset rising producers' costs. On the other hand, the agro-industrial complex is already faced with a high fiscal burden and key rate, which undermine its profitability (18% in 2023 vs 19% a year earlier)

Egor Bespyatov, a Partner at Yakov and Partners, confirms a 7% increase in the total volumes of fertilizer production. He says potassium chloride and urea saw the largest uptick in shipments vs. the previous year (+9%, up to 4.4 million tonnes, and +8%, up to 3.1 million tonnes, respectively). Exports of ammonium nitrate remained stable at 3.3 million tonnes (up 2% from 2024). The expert points out that the reasons for the increased production may vary depending on the type of product

Yakov and Partners experts estimate that the gap between domestic and export prices for mineral fertilizers resulting from the domestic price freeze created a "hidden" subsidy to the agricultural industry in the amount of RUB 50 billion per year. They point out that this is a "conditional amount" which fertilizer producers "miss out on" when selling their products on the domestic market, which, nevertheless, is "quite material for farmers"

Dmitry Plotnikov, a Partner at Yakov and Partners, notes that the Russian wine industry has found itself in a unique situation. The government is providing unprecedented support to the industry amidst external restrictions. Financial indicators also confirm that the industry is going strong. However, successful development of the industry requires solving several major problems, i. e. establishing product evaluation institutions, starting regulating online trade, and devising mechanisms for attracting investments

In some areas Russian solutions could even be among the global leaders. Developing unmanned technologies offers huge potential. A window of opportunity is now opening for Russian manufacturers due to increased demand for a whole range of technologies, including high-performance chips, video cameras, and 4D imaging radars capable of detecting objects at a distance of 300 meters at any speed and in any weather, says Fedor Chemashkin

Ten years after the implementation of the food ban, Russia has successfully met the needs of its citizens for food. “It is rather difficult to assess the impact of restrictive measures on food inflation, as a meaningful part of the cost of agricultural produce is still pegged to the dollar, including genetic material, fine chemicals used in the food and feed industry, machinery, and equipment,” explains Alexey Kletsko, a director at Yakov and Partners

In 2023, the volume of grain trading on the National Mercantile Exchange doubled year-on-year to reach RUB 31 bn. Alexey Kletsko, a director at Yakov and Partners, expects this year’s trading volumes to match those of 2023. According to his data, in the first five months of 2024 the figure climbed to RUB 11 bn

"The restrictions imposed by the US and the EU against Russia as one of the main exporters of agro-industrial products and a guarantor of global food security have contributed greatly to the rising logistics and production costs. Monetary expansion in mature economies during the pandemic also contributed significantly to food inflation", maintains Alexey Kletsko

Annual agricultural exports are expected to grow to USD 55 billion over the next five years, which obviously requires updating the Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation, says Alexey Kletsko, a Yakov and Partners Director. It would be reasonable to expect agriculture development goals to be appropriately reworded in terms of increasing the investment attractiveness of the sector and the welfare of society, factoring in an adequate view of economic realities

Valdis Plyavinsh, a Senior Analyst at Yakov and Partners, says that as of the end of 2024, Russia was the EU's single largest source of ammonia, accounting for more than 15% of European imports. Between January and July 2025, its share grew to 19%. The expert cites the full operational startup of the Port Favor terminal in Ust-Luga as the main driver behind the uplift in shipments. The terminal was launched in late 2024 and went on to ship at least 400,000 tonnes of ammonia between January and August of this year

Agricultural producers from the Rostov region held a round table to discuss the most promising areas for industry development in the region on the back of the difficult 2024 year, rising costs, and declining profits. Stanislav Vetoshkin, an Engagement Manager at Yakov and Partners, emphasizes the importance of working out a set of measures to buoy the agro-industrial complex, boost exports and develop national champions

The role of the EU in Russian agriculture exports is decreasing. In 2023, EU countries accounted for as little as 6% of those exports vs. more than 12% earlier, says Alexey Kletsko, a director at Yakov and Partners. In 2023, Latvia, the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany were the main recipients of Russian agricultural exports to the European Union. The value of these exports to each country exceeded 300 million euros

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The declining economic situation may trigger reductions in aid programs and prices for commodities that are the main export products of developing countries. "Yet, agricultural producers will be unable to pass the rising fertilizer costs on to consumers, because consumers in those countries already have to spend the better part of their income on food", says Egor Bespyatov, a Partner at Yakov and Partners

Reinstatement of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is an important first step in easing geopolitical tensions under the umbrella of global food security, believes Alexey Kletsko of Yakov and Partners. Global food prices rose in February-March of 2022 and remain high, primarily due to increased operational costs and supply chain disruptions

According to Yakov and Partners estimates, annual domestic consumption of crop protection agents (CPA) went up 60% between 2017 and 2023. The industry grew primarily through construction of new facilities and expansion of the product range. Stanislav Vetoshkin, a Project Manager at Yakov and Partners, notes that further market growth is to be expected

Alexey Kletsko notes that the profitability of grain crops may decrease in the coming season due to the poor condition of crops and the rising cost of the means of production. Maintaining the budget support of the agro-industrial complex in 2025 at RUB 560 billion will be a challenge amid the growth of withdrawals from the industry, such as RUB 134 billion in 2024 and RUB 187 billion in 2025 in the form of duty on grain exports, as well as about RUB 50 billion in the form of export duty on oilseeds and associated processed products

Early in the 2024/2025 season, export prices have been heavily impacted by limited demand from buyers, says Alexey Kletsko, a director at Yakov and Partners. He believes Turkey's suspension of imports until mid-October slashed shipments of Russian wheat in July and August by 10% to 15% year-on-year. "Other buyers, in an attempt to reduce prices, are not entering into large-scale contracts," Kletsko explained

Last season, Russia extended the geography of agricultural exports, gaining a foothold in new grain markets, says Alexey Kletsko, a director at Yakov and Partners. China made it to the top 5 importers of Russian grain legumes after almost doubling its buying, along with Mexico and Brazil, while supplies to Indonesia increased by a factor of 10

Given the export restrictions imposed until the end of August, producers will be able to export 1 mn tonnes of products, yet it would be better to export 1.2 mn tonnes to keep processing profitable. Such are the estimates presented by Stanislav Vetoshkin, an Engagement Manager at Yakov and Partners. Another challenge for the industry is the 97% reliance on imported seeds, notes Vetoshkin

According to the estimates presented by a Yakov and Partners expert Stanislav Vetoshkin, “The list of the top five exporters did not change in the first half of the 2023/2024 season compared to the 2022/2023 season and includes Grain Gates, Rif Trading House, Aston, OZK Group, and MZK Export (former division of Viterra, a global trader). Their collective share exceeds 50% of grain exports

Yakov and Partners Director Alexey Kletsko says the domestic agrichemical market has strong growth prospects as this country is yet to reach a technology-based level of crop protection. To put things into perspective, pesticide consumption stands at 8 kg per hectare for Europe, 10 kg for China, and about 3 kg for Russia. The expert believes that given the current size of arable land, annual CPA consumption may be expected to rise to 360,000 tonnes as soon as 2030 and may reach 700,000 tonnes over a longer horizon

To secure its sovereignty and a sustainable foothold in the Arctic, Russia must ramp up investments in the region, enhancing social, medical, and educational infrastructure. The country also needs to increase funding and support for research and development in the Arctic zone, according to Dmitry Plotnikov, a partner at Yakov and Partners.

Yakov and Partners’ Director Alexey Kletsko believes that the path chosen by this country will determine the future of its agriculture, regions, and food security. A profitable, technology-led agricultural sector may in future serve to drive employment rates, tax revenues, and demographic sustainability in rural areas

Alexey Kletsko does not believe that mandating agricultural players to sell part of their produce at the commodity exchange is likely to increase liquidity. The problem lies in lack of trust and economic viability. New regulations will not solve any structural problems. Stimulating exchange trading is only possible provided the government takes a holistic approach and provides the required incentives

This year marks the launch of Russia’s Technological Support for Food Security national project. Alexey Kletsko, a Director at Yakov and Partners and Head of its Agriculture Practice, says that the goals of the national project have to be aligned with one another, based on economic realities, and supported by appropriate tools to be feasible

Demetra-Holding has acquired 25% of Astrol Shipping Company, whose fleet consists of ten RSD59 bulk carriers for transportation of grain and other agro-industrial products. Yakov and Partners Director Alexey Kletsko called this deal a logical step for building a vertically integrated grain trader that combines export logistics and grain trading assets