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Currently, Russia relies on fields mostly discovered and brought online in the Soviet times for around 95% of its crude and condensate output. Lower exploration drilling is also a result of a lack of cutting-edge technologies needed to tap particularly complicated reserves offshore or in the Arctic, said Anna Volkova, expert at Yakov and Partners. Both the EU and the US ban supplies of such equipment and technologies to Russia

Russia has as many as 100 ice-class vessels able to carry Arctic cargoes, according Yakov and Partners estimates. However, only 27 of these ships — including 15 LNG tankers, seven oil tankers and five container ships — are of the Arc6 or Arc7 class that allows year-round navigation through thicker winter ice, according to Valdis Plyavinsh, an expert at Yakov and Partner’s Research & Isights Center

Russia presents its vision of the future global financial system. The alternatives include developing a network of commercial banks that can conduct such transactions in local currencies as well as establishing direct links between central banks, according to a report prepared by the Russian Finance Ministry, the Bank of Russia and Yakov and Partners

“Successes in onshore drilling do not diminish the importance of the task to increase technological sovereignty in high-tech oil services,” said Sofia Mangileva, an analyst at Yakov and Partners. This is especially important “for hard-to-recover reserves.”

The Russian housing market is expected to reach a stalemate in the next 6–8 months while the population gets used to the new market conditions after the country ended a program of mortgage subsidies on July 1, 2024. New construction will slow amid low sales and a drop in flows to developers’ escrow accounts, though a decline in prices is unlikely, said Pavel Shashkov, an analyst at Yakov and Partners

Russia was set to process 275 million tons of crude for this year, well below the total annual processing capacity of 312 million tons estimated at the end of last year, according to Sofia Mangileva, an analyst at Yakov and Partners. That means the nation can compensate for the attacks and ensure sufficient exports of petroleum products

“The main reason for the growth in Russia’s drilling is the need to launch new wells,” said Gennadii Masakov, Director of the research and insights center at Yakov and Partners. “New wells have to be launched as the currently producing fields are depleting.”

The current resilience of Russia’s oil production to international sanctions will be tested in the longer term by the lack of high-tech services, according to Yakov and Partners. “The absence of domestic high-tech oil services creates risks for 20% of the output by 2030,” said Andrey Streltsov and Gennady Masakov

Russia is one of 10 countries, including the U.S., China, Britain and Israel, that are developing their own generative AI models. Yakov and Partners says this gives it the potential to become a much more significant player.
Russia sees the use of AI technologies across all sectors adding 11.2 trillion roubles ($109 billion) to gross domestic product in 2030, compared to 0.2 trillion roubles ($1.9 billion) in 2023