Research
February 2025

Yakov and Partners experts have looked into the present and future of autonomous transportation in Russia. According to the study “Robots at the wheel: Outlook for the transition to self-driving vehicles in Russia,” more than a quarter of all vehicles on the Russian roads will be self-driving within as little as ten years. Moreover, the percentage of autonomous vehicles will reach 80% by 2042. In addition to changing the way traffic flows – the country’s roads will be very different from what we are used to – they will also make a major contribution to the economy.

“Different types of autonomous transportation are now advancing, but the country should focus on motor vehicles. We believe that the transition to self-driving vehicles will have an overall positive impact on the Russian economy estimated at RUB 4.6 trillion annually. This does not include potential effects of stimulating related high-tech industries like sensors, electronics, and software. This can be achieved only by introducing well-thought-out industry regulations, stimulating private investment in autonomous vehicle technology, and creating smart infrastructure, which will require about RUB 1.5 trillion before 2035”

Maksim Bolotskikh, Partner at Yakov and Partners

The study shows that the transition to self-driving vehicles will be a step-by-step process. Predictable and isolated environments – such as warehouses and logistics centers – will be the first to introduce autonomous solutions, followed by long-distance transportation networks, and then by urban transportation and mass transit.

For car drivers and city authorities alike, the transition to self-driving vehicles will solve a number of problems at once. First, it will reduce the traffic accident rate: about 88% of car crashes are caused by human error, so the introduction of autonomous vehicles can prevent thousands of accidents, saving lives and cutting the country's expenses by RUB 635 billion a year. According to Yakov and Partners estimates, the accident rate would drop significantly even after only 25% of conventional vehicles are replaced with self-driving ones.

Second, autonomous cars will create new opportunities for those who cannot drive because of health issues or other concerns. Additionally, they will help improve traffic flows, reducing congestion. Annual economic losses caused by traffic jams range from RUB 1 trillion to RUB 2.5 trillion, depending on the density of traffic. Freeing up the time spent by Russians in traffic will be equivalent to increasing the country’s labor force by 3.4%, or 2.8 million people, according to the study by Yakov and Partners.

Freight transport companies will also significantly benefit from the transition. Operating costs may drop by 30–40%, creating additional economic impact of RUB 2.1 trillion a year and stabilizing the labor market.

“The widespread adoption of self-driving trucks could help alleviate staffing shortages in logistics. But this will require highly autonomous vehicles that can carry cargo without test drivers in the cockpit. According to our estimates, by replacing 25% of the existing trucks with self-driving ones, we can fill all the current vacancies for long-distance truck drivers”

Alexander Ryzhov, Associate at Yakov and Partners

However, pushing towards full autonomy requires concerted efforts from the state and business. Creating smart infrastructure and establishing common standards for autonomous vehicle technology will be a priority. Otherwise, there is a risk of facing a “menagerie of technologies,” with vehicles produced by different manufacturers from different countries co-existing in one ecosystem without clear rules in place.

Besides, it is critical for Russia to develop its own trusted, sovereign technologies. If the country fails to develop software domestically, it risks becoming dependent on foreign solutions, which could jeopardize the safety and sustainability of its transportation system.

In addition to being the key to safety and economic efficiency, autonomous technology may also give a strong impetus to other high-tech industries. Unlocking its full potential will ensure the country's technological independence and open up new export opportunities for Russian-made solutions. And then, the experience and expertise gained in that area can be used in aviation, manufacturing, agriculture, and other sectors.


Maksim Bolotskikh, Partner

Andrey Pavlovich, CEO of LogiX

Alexander Ryzhov, Associate

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