Research
January 2025

Yakov and Partners analyzed the current status of and the outlook for generative AI in the BRICS countries as of November 2024. According to their study titled Generative AI in BRICS+ Countries: Trends and Outlook, the realized economic potential of generative AI technologies embraced by these countries is expected to be USD 350–600 billion by 2030. And the full economic potential of generative models for the economies of the member countries may reach USD 0.9–1.4 tn by that time. This represents 20% of the total AI impact in these countries.

"As GenAI development progresses, the importance of international collaboration in all aspects related to these technologies is becoming increasingly evident. This includes developing models, building infrastructure for training, and establishing a regulatory system. The BRICS grouping is working to enhance the economic and technological capabilities of its members, including collaboration on AI regulation. This is particularly relevant given the adoption of a document at the XVI BRICS Summit, which outlines the creation of a global system to mitigate the risks associated with AI. This system will ensure inclusiveness and sustainability, with a focus on bridging the digital divide between countries"

Maksim Bolotskikh, partner at Yakov and Partners

Experts have noted that the development of GenAI in the BRICS+ countries since 2022 has been uneven. While China quickly released its own solutions, reaching the level of Western models as early as mid-2023, Russia and the UAE at that time only started active deployment of their models. However, a survey of BRICS+ CTOs conducted by Yakov and Partners in the summer of 2024 found that 54% of Russian companies had already implemented GenAI-based solutions in at least one function within their organizations. In other countries of the grouping, the technology has not developed as quickly or on the same scale. Nevertheless, by the end of 2024, the BRICS+ countries, largely thanks to China, are on par with or slightly behind (less than half a year) the United States, the global leader in this area.

It is estimated that nearly 70% of the potential impact of GenAI integration into the BRICS+ economies will be felt in six key industries: banking, retail, engineering, energy, electronics, and IT. The impact on the banking sector is the most significant, representing 20% of the total impact on companies. The IT sector is the largest beneficiary of generative models in the context of AI solutions, with almost a third of the sector's impact attributed to this technology. This is partly due to the fact that LLM models are highly effective for coding.

The study findings indicate that China accounts for over 86% of the aggregate impact within the grouping, while India, Brazil, and Russia represent 12%, with the remaining 2% attributed to other countries. This distribution is primarily driven by the size of the respective economies. In terms of specific impact (estimated per USD 1,000 of revenue in the country), China also ranks first with a considerable lead, though the gap from other countries is not as pronounced. China is followed by India and the UAE with about half of China's specific impact. The rest of the countries have a specific impact that is about three times as small. The differences in specific impact are explained by the degree of digitalization of the economy and the industry mix.

Experts have identified five key areas of cooperation in the development of GenAI in the BRICS+ countries. These include joint development of GenAI-enabled models and products, computing power and data, human resources and education, as well as self-regulatory organizations and a regulatory system.

"Focusing on these areas will not only enhance the potential of the countries in the grouping, but also establish a strategic alternative to US dominance in this crucial sector. At the same time, fostering a competitive environment will accelerate the uptake of AI in business, as well as enable the countries to more effectively unlock its economic potential, estimated at trillions of dollars"

Marina Dorokhova, Director at Yakov and Partners

According to experts, China will continue to compete with the US for the leadership in both development and industrial application of its own solutions. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India, and Brazil will be focusing mostly on their respective national markets developing local language models and business solutions while offering the most successful ones internationally. South Africa is most likely to pursue the role of a technology consumer adapting international solutions for its domestic needs. According to Russia’s national strategy, the implementation of AI technologies in the country will result in the cumulative GDP growth of RUB 11.2 trillion by 2030, while the annual value of AI services will reach RUB 60 billion.

The survey was conducted as part of the study titled "Generative AI in the BRICS+ Countries: Trends and Outlook." About 100 CTOs from the top 300 companies in each of the BRICS+ countries participated in the survey. Additionally, Yakov and Partners conducted a series of interviews with prominent experts in the field of generative AI in the BRICS+ countries and assessed their level of development across five key factors.


Maksim Bolotskikh, Partner

Marina Dorokhova, Director

Ivan Serov, Consultant

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