Uzbekistan’s economy demonstrates stable growth rates, averaging around 7% per year. Over the past five years, the country’s export volume has increased by more than 80%, while foreign investment has been growing at an annual rate of approximately 18%. Moreover, in 2024, foreign direct investment reached a historic high of USD 28 billion. According to expert forecasts, by 2030 Uzbekistan’s GDP will grow nearly 1.5 times and approach USD 200 billion.
This economic growth is accompanied by pronounced demographic trends, the report notes. The country’s population exceeds 37 million and continues to grow, with the main increase occurring in the working-age population. At the same time, household incomes are rising by an average of 5% per year, forming steady solvent demand for housing, especially in large cities and urban agglomerations, experts point out.Under these conditions, Uzbekistan’s residential real estate market is growing at a confident pace: in 2020–2024, the commissioning of multi-apartment buildings increased by an average of 14% annually. Overall housing commissioning is growing at 4.7% per year, with construction gradually shifting toward multi-apartment developments. According to expert estimates, by 2030 the annual volume of commissioned multi-apartment housing will reach 13.8 million sq m, compared to 6.2 million sq m in 2024.
Key demand drivers for new housing include accelerated urbanization and a high share of obsolete housing stock, the report states. More than 60% of existing housing in the country consists of low-quality individual housing or multi-apartment buildings constructed before 1990 that require renovation. In the long term, up to 50–70% of the population may live in urban agglomerations, which will require large-scale renewal and expansion of the housing stock, experts believe.
Uzbekistan today offers a rare combination for the region: a large-scale market, high growth rates, and returns comparable to current levels in Russia. Average development project margins range from 10–20%, and in certain locations and segments may reach 19–90% or higher. At the same time, there is significant upside potential driven by further improvements in household welfare and overall market growth
Anna Danchenok, Partner at Yakov and Partners
At the same time, entering the Uzbek market is associated with a number of structural challenges, experts acknowledge. Key barriers include a limited supply of publicly available land plots and high land prices, the immaturity of project financing mechanisms, as well as high sensitivity of projects to currency volatility and borrowing costs. In addition, enhanced seismic resistance requirements increase technological complexity and affect project costs.
To mitigate entry risks, experts recommend that developers adopt partnership models with local players. Joint ventures allow companies to shorten market entry timelines, facilitate access to land plots, and share financial burdens. The effectiveness of such a strategy largely depends on the set of competencies the developer brings to the partnership. Russian companies’ key competitive advantage lies in their accumulated expertise in delivering large-scale integrated projects — from developing areas spanning tens or hundreds of hectares to renovating outdated housing stock and creating fully fledged urban districts with social and commercial infrastructure.
According to experts, the most attractive segments for market entry remain business- and premium-class housing. Despite the fact that around 40% of housing commissioned in Tashkent formally belongs to these segments, market participants note a shortage of truly high-quality supply: a significant share of projects does not meet buyers’ expectations in terms of architecture, layouts, and service levels. This creates a window of opportunity for developers capable of introducing modern product standards and best practices from the Russian market.
Uzbekistan’s real estate market is becoming one of the key growth points for developers amid the transformation of the Russian market. In the medium term, competitive advantage will be gained by companies that are able to combine financial discipline, a deep understanding of local specifics, and the ability to scale a high-quality product that meets both buyer expectations and the country’s long-term socio-economic development goals
Vitaly Zuev, Engagement Manager at Yakov and Partners
