Historically, only 27–28% of mechanical engineering graduates remained in the industry three years after graduation. Efforts by both companies and the government to strengthen ties between businesses and educational institutions, enhance the prestige of industrial jobs, and improve employment conditions have yet to translate into a meaningful increase in young specialists entering the sector.
These findings come from a joint report by consulting firm Yakov and Partners and the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor titled “Silent Machines: How Manufacturing Is Addressing Workforce Shortages.” The report is based on an analysis of the official workforce demand forecast through 2029, published by the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Russian Federation in December 2024.
According to the report, manufacturing faces the largest workforce replacement demand among all sectors of the economy. By 2029, the industry will require approximately 1.6 million workers. Of this, 1.4 million will be needed simply to replace retiring employees, reflecting the high average age of the current workforce and the historically low inflow of new talent. An additional 203,000 workers will be required to support new job creation driven by production expansion, import substitution goals, and ambitions for technological sovereignty.
Experts estimate that even under a baseline growth scenario, the sector must either increase average annual labor productivity growth by 5.5 times (from 0.5% to 2.9%) or significantly expand its workforce capacity. If productivity growth remains at current levels, the industry would need approximately 1.5 million additional workers on top of the 1.4 million required for workforce replacement.
A key driver of the labor imbalance in manufacturing is the steady aging of the workforce combined with persistently low levels of youth recruitment over previous decades.
Internal migration is also exacerbating the shortage. Regions with strong industrial bases are already experiencing an outflow of young professionals. Approximately 47% of all migration flows involve individuals aged 15–35. Many young people leave for universities after school and do not return. By contrast, central regions such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Moscow region show the opposite trend: returning graduates outnumber those leaving after school, supporting a steady inflow of young talent.
Moreover, only about one-third of mechanical engineering graduates remain employed in manufacturing three years after graduation. This trend is partly driven by low interest in the sector, despite relatively attractive salaries for vocational graduates.
Against the backdrop of sustained demand for skilled workers, high attrition rates in manufacturing continue to pose risks to the sector’s long-term growth. According to the 2025–2029 workforce demand forecast, which is broadly supported by industry representatives, 70% of replacement demand is concentrated in mid-skilled roles, primarily blue-collar occupations.
However, change is possible. Many companies have already been taking steps to address the challenge. A primary focus has been on improving labor productivity through standardization, automation, and the adoption of high-performance technologies. Industry leaders are implementing robotics and automated production lines, reducing headcount while increasing output.
Beyond technology, leading companies are investing in talent attraction and development starting from the school level. Systematic collaboration with educational institutions is already improving training in high-demand professions, although the impact takes time to materialize. In parallel, businesses are strengthening short-cycle, on-the-job training programs. According to expert interviews conducted by Yakov and Partners, such programs — including corporate academies, internships, and internal training courses — can already meet up to 70% of demand for skilled workers (such as maintenance technicians, crane operators, process operators, and others) within approximately three months of training.
At the same time, many companies still need to improve the competitiveness of their employment offering and intensify cooperation with educational institutions. This includes expanding training in high-demand specialties such as equipment maintenance, electrical work, and process operations, while ensuring that educational programs align more closely with modern employer requirements.
The workforce challenge is becoming a strategic issue for the long-term growth and resilience of the manufacturing sector. Key priorities include increasing the attractiveness of industrial professions, improving working conditions, and creating pathways for the development of skilled specialists. Addressing these challenges will require not only business efforts but also active government involvement in education, career guidance, and support for automation.
For prospective students, the message is clear: choosing an in-demand profession in manufacturing is a reliable path — experts suggest that graduates in these fields are unlikely to face unemployment.
