The volume of apartment building commissioning in Russia in 2026 may decrease to 41 million square meters, 20% below the 2023 peak. At the same time, the postponement of commissioning for future years will reach a historic maximum of 16.2 million square meters. At the same time, the industry's main challenges are high financial costs, continued growth in construction costs, and rationalization of consumer demand. Such conclusions are contained in the study "Trends in the development of the real estate market: the new normal", presented by experts from Yakov and Partners and the Unified Resource of Developers following the IV Summit of Russian Developers.
The new building market is facing a paradigm shift: the era of cheap lending and high demand is over. Under the new conditions, project margins barely reach 5-10%, and project financing rates have increased to 10.8%, which significantly exceeds industry profitability. In these circumstances, it is critically important for developers to restructure their business models, shifting the focus from volume to financial stability and operational efficiency.
Aiman El Hashem, Expert Partner at Yakov and Partners
According to experts, the industry is currently experiencing double pressure from both the demand and supply sides. In 2025, the average project financing rate increased from 9.4% to 10.8%, and debt coverage on escrow accounts decreased. Banks have increased discipline by tightening contract terms.
As developers face growing difficulties obtaining financing and rising financial costs, real estate investment will decline by almost twofold in 2025, experts say. Nevertheless, large companies with proven transparency and high standards of corporate governance remain competitive in the market.
In parallel with financial costs, operating costs are increasing. Since 2021, the cost of monolithic concreting in Moscow has increased by more than 2.5 times, from 2.5 thousand rubles per cubic meter to over 6.5 thousand rubles. Prices for concrete have increased by 60%, and for steel for reinforced concrete products and window blocks by about 30%. The cost of renting special equipment has increased by 50-70%, experts estimate. At the same time, market participants expect further cost increases. The cost of building materials will increase by 7.5% in 2025. and by 5% in 2026, and the wage fund by 10% and 3%, respectively.
A look into the future
According to experts, projects with a high degree of readiness that minimize buyers' risks, as well as flexible installment programs and a proven developer's reputation, confirmed by completed facilities, are currently coming to the fore.
According to the study's results, sales under equity participation agreements will stabilize at about 475,000 apartments in 2025 and 480,000 in 2026. The volume of mortgage loans will remain at 2 and 2.2 trillion rubles, respectively. The products will adapt to buyers' current financial capabilities, with the average apartment area under construction decreasing to about 48.6 square meters. m. At the same time, the growth rate of real estate prices will remain stable. The cost per square meter in Russia is expected to grow by an average of 6% in 2025 and 2026.
Given the lack of financing and reduced liquidity in the market, developers are forced to rethink their project implementation strategy, reducing input volumes and focusing on cost management. In response to these challenges, experts identify five key areas for developers to adapt.
The first key area is optimizing the land bank, which aims to "unfreeze" capital tied up in assets acquired in 2023-2024 through expensive bridge loans. The second important aspect is optimizing the development scenario, prioritizing reducing construction queue sizes and selling them flexibly based on real demand, thereby increasing capital turnover. The third direction is the transformation of the sales model, in which the focus shifts from gross revenue to the marginality of each transaction, and CRM systems are used to support financial forecasting and performance management.
The fourth lever is the standardization of the product through the creation of "solution catalogs", which reduces design time by 25-30% and significantly reduces cost, while maintaining the uniqueness of the project. Finally, the fifth element of adaptation is to increase the efficiency of construction and installation work, in which the developer assumes the role of an integrator, independently managing contractors, work schedules, and organizing centralized procurement of materials.
The Russian development market is completing an era of aggressive growth and entering an era of effective management. The most disciplined and efficient ones win. The value of the company will be determined by the quality of management, transparency, and the ability to deliver a product that meets client expectations and aligns with the project's economics.
Kirill Kholopik, CEO of the Institute for the Development of the Construction Industry
