Experts fr om the consulting company Yakov and Partners and Yandex have studied the current situation and prospects for the development of artificial intelligence technologies in Russia. According to the study "Artificial Intelligence in Russia: Trends and Prospects," the expected economic impact of AI by 2030 may amount to 7.9–12.8 trillion rubles per year, corresponding to up to 5.5% of projected GDP.
The updated forecast significantly exceeds previous estimates, which predicted an impact of 4.2–6.9 trillion rubles and a potential influence on GDP of up to 4% over five years until 2028. The growth is attributed to the rapid development of technologies, primarily generative AI, and their active implementation in business processes, according to experts. This effect is not only due to cost savings but also the creation of new value through business process optimization, the development of new products and services, and the formation of fundamentally new business models.
In the report, experts analyzed in detail four key technologies: generative AI, with a focus on AI agents; natural language processing (NLP) and speech technologies; computer vision (CV); and recommendation systems (RecSys). From a technological perspective, the most significant contributions come from generative AI and computer vision. At the same time, the highest efficiency is seen in digital-oriented sectors such as e-commerce, telecommunications, media, and IT and technology, the report notes.
According to surveys of CTOs and vendors, on average, around 90% of respondents assess the level of AI development and implementation in Russia as "above average globally" or comparable to leading countries such as the USA and China.
Technological Outlook
According to experts, the most significant contribution to the effect of AI on GDP from the four technologies discussed in the report comes from generative AI, 1.6–2.7 trillion rubles by 2030. As of this year, 71% of companies use this technology in at least one of their functions, which is 17 percentage points higher than in 2024. According to the CTO survey, over the past two years, generative AI has gone far beyond isolated experiments: the average number of functions wh ere pilots or full implementation have been launched increased fr om 2.4 in 2023 to 3.1 in 2025, and the technology is now used in 80% of key business functions, said Maksim Bolotskikh, partner at Yakov and Partners and head of the AI and High Technologies practice.
Business sees generative AI primarily as a tool to increase efficiency and revenue growth: 87% of companies using generative AI expect a reduction in other operational costs, and 83% expect an increase in revenue by enhancing product value and improving customer experience. The expected EBITDA growth is estimated at an average of 4%, which is higher than for any other AI direction. As a result, companies are spending an average of about 4% of their IT budget on generative AI
Maksim Bolotskikh, Partner at Yakov and Partners
In addition to closed-source models, open-source AI solutions are actively used in Russia, which, according to experts, reduces costs, speeds up customization, and supports technological sovereignty. The country already has competitive analogs of the largest LLMs, such as DeepSeek and ChatGPT—Alice AI (formerly YandexGPT) and GigaChat, which confirm the ecosystem's maturity. At the same time, 86% of companies using generative AI fine-tune external open-source models.
The use of AI agents is rapidly growing on the market: 46% of companies have already implemented or are testing autonomous solutions capable of performing task chains without human involvement. These agents are most often used in analytics, logistics, and decision support processes.
Meanwhile, natural language processing (NLP) and speech recognition technologies have reached high maturity and are the most recognizable among users: 53% of respondents are familiar with them, compared to 39% for other technologies. Their main application is in customer service (68% of companies use them for handling requests and interactions), as well as in production and marketing. The most AI-advanced companies expect significant contributions of NLP technologies to EBITDA (3.6%) and plan to continue investments, strengthening integration with generative AI for more flexible context understanding and creating complex responses.
As the report notes, computer vision (CV) remains an essential driver of economic impact (17% of the total effect), automating visual inspection, security, and operations in production (67% of companies use this technology). The implementation of CV in quality control and predictive maintenance contributes to operational efficiency and is expected to expand, experts believe.
Recommendation systems (RecSys) are one of the most mature areas and have been used in half (54%) of the respondent companies for more than five years. This dynamic is mainly due to the low entry threshold and capital costs, as well as quicker and measurable results compared to other AI technologies, emphasized Marina Dorokhova, director at Yakov and Partners (AI and High Technologies practice).
Their main value lies in improving marketing, sales, and customer service: 77% and 69% of companies use them in these areas. In e-commerce, the share of investments in these technologies is higher than average (4.0% vs. 1.7%), and the effect for companies reaches around 1% of EBITDA. In the coming years, further development and integration of the technology with generative AI for content creation is expected. However, traditional algorithms will remain an important part of predictive analytics
Marina Dorokhova, Director at Yakov and Partners
Focus on the Future
In total, the data clearly demonstrate that the Russian AI ecosystem has entered the scaling phase, wh ere mature technologies—computer vision (CV), recommendation systems (RecSys), natural language processing (NLP), and speech technologies—provide predictable effects. In contrast, generative AI and agent systems act as accelerators for new products and business models, experts believe.
According to the report, more than 60% of the total economic impact in Russia is concentrated in five key sectors: e-commerce, telecommunications and media, IT and technology, construction and real estate, and healthcare. By 2030, AI implementation will become a matter of survival for most companies, according to the study's authors. The distribution of the total effect shows that the highest returns fr om AI investments will be in industries wh ere AI technologies directly affect key business processes and monetization models.
Companies that are already building strategies around data and algorithms today are laying the foundation for market dominance in the next decade. On a national scale, achieving the effect of AI is possible only through close collaboration between educational institutions, the state, and private companies: the education system shapes practical skills and a culture of mindful interaction with models, business acts as a supplier and integrator of these models, and the state provides the necessary infrastructure and regulatory conditions for their full-scale deployment
Ivan Serov, Associate at Yakov and Partners
The report's conclusions are based on a detailed analysis of three large datasets: a survey of 150 CTOs from 16 key sectors of the economy, a study of 150 Russian AI vendors, and a user survey of over 3,500 respondents, complemented by in-depth interviews with industry leaders.
