Amid changing resident expectations for urban infrastructure and limited availability of free urban land, transit-oriented development (TOD) may become one of the key drivers of growth in Russian megacities. According to experts at Yakov and Partners, based on current transport development trends, around 90 TOD projects could be implemented over the next 15 years. Total investment in real estate within these projects could amount to RUB 7–10 trillion, provided efficient development of the surrounding catchment areas.
This approach would enable the creation of economically efficient, dense, and comfortable districts aligned with the “15-minute city” concept. These findings are presented in the report “Integration of transport and real estate: how a new approach to housing development is transforming megacities.”
Transit-oriented development involves the integrated development of areas surrounding transport hubs—metro stations, railway stations, and intermodal transit hubs. These locations evolve into dense, multifunctional districts where housing, jobs, services, and public spaces are all within walking distance.
International practice shows that developing areas around transport hubs significantly improves urban land-use efficiency. Such locations become highly liquid assets: within TOD catchment areas, commercial real estate rents can increase by 15–35% in retail and by 10–25% in office segments, while residential property values may rise by 5–15% compared to areas located further fr om transport infrastructure. Experts believe that a similar effect can be achieved in the Russian market.
Transit-oriented development is changing the very logic of urban growth. Transport hubs are becoming focal points of urban activity and centers for multifunctional districts wh ere housing, work, and services are within walking distance. This helps reduce transport нагрузку and improve the quality of the urban environment
Anna Danchenok, Partner at Yakov and Partners
According to experts, Russia currently has around 90 promising TOD projects, with development in this area beginning approximately 15 years ago with the construction of transport interchange hubs in Moscow.
Looking ahead
Experts identify several key growth areas for TOD projects. The most significant is the development of territories around major transport stations, including along future high-speed rail lines such as Moscow–St. Petersburg and Moscow–Kazan. These adjacent areas could potentially accommodate around 15 million square meters of residential and commercial real estate.
TOD projects also hold potential through the intensification of already developed areas around existing transport hubs in major cities, as well as the creation of new growth centers in peripheral areas of urban agglomerations.
According to experts, large-scale development of transit-oriented projects in Russia requires addressing two key systemic challenges: establishing unified standards for TOD project implementation and developing new financing mechanisms and public-private partnership models.
The TOD concept opens up new opportunities for urban development. For Russian megacities and agglomerations, this is a chance to transform transport hubs and surrounding areas into полноценные centers of economic activity and urban life—provided that clear standards and effective financing tools are introduced
Natalia Kuvaeva, Engagement manager and Expert at Yakov and Partners
Russia already has mechanisms for financing large infrastructure projects through the so-called “Infrastructure Menu.” However, global practice offers broader approaches to investment payback, such as Tax Increment Financing (TIF).
TIF considers the entire catchment area and accounts for increases in land and real estate value driven by infrastructure improvements. It allows capturing the full benefits of territorial capitalization, rather than relying solely on tax revenues from anchor investors.
Typically, the payback period for large infrastructure projects is at least 20–30 years. However, the use of TIF mechanisms—capturing incremental taxes within a radius of up to 800 meters from a transport hub (including property tax, land tax, and personal income tax)—can reduce this period by approximately half, to 10–15 years.
